I’ve put together about a dozen political events since 2010. For all of them, I used a Facebook event page to promote the event & forecast how many people will actually show up. The result was almost always the same. About half of the people that clicked “going” on the event page, actually showed up the day of the event.
“But they have to sign a paper, not click a button”. Well, there’s slightly more effort involved in actually writing out your signature than clicking a button, but I’d say the pressure to actually show is the same. There is no pressure. It’s a commitment you gave, at a random moment in your life. Nothing says “if you click going” you must attend, and nothing says “if you sign the pledge, you must move to New Hampshire”.
Usually half that click going for one of my events, attended a one day event, that cost them around $20-$40. For the Free State Project, of the 20,000 that basically wrote “going”, what is required of them? More than a few hours of their time & $40, that’s for sure.
To be part of the move, you’re looking at thousands of dollars in costs, minimum. Some of the people who signed, could have signed 10 years ago. Is their financial situation the same? Has it gotten worse? Do they now have kids that now have lots of friends from their community? Do they have an amazing job that they can’t afford to lose? ? There are so many more factors in getting a potential free stater to keep to their commitment, than for me to get someone to attend an event. And I get half to come through. How many will actually come through for the Free State Project?
Did they intentionally plan for 20,000, knowing a lot fewer would show? Would be interesting to hear from them, what they’re realistically forecasting & what they will consider a success.
Of the 20,000 pledges, how many people do you think will actually make the move to New Hampshire? Vote in our poll below